Tendency of emergency of natural and technological disasters in 2011
In Ukraine in the last decade 110- 140 emergencies occur caused by natural factors. Losses constitute about 80% -90% of the losses due to emergency of natural and technological. The largest number of them is due to meteorological factors.
At the same time, the distribution of losses from emergency of natural character (according to statistics in 1997 -2010 years) has no correlation with the number of emergencies. So decreasing of the number of emergencies starting with 2000, has not led to a decreasing in losses from these events but a significant increasing was observed in certain years (2000, 2007, 2008 and 2010).
The relationship between the number of emergency of natural character and losses from such events.
Analysis of natural emergencies confirms the presence of stable tendency of preservation of considerable financial losses from natural emergency regardless of their number.
Natural emergencies will largely depend on weather conditions current. Long-term (seasonal, monthly) weather forecasting now has a large part of uncertainties and detailed forecast of the possibility of specific emergency origins due to hydrometeorological events per year has not scientifically proved reasons.
Taking into account the above, forecast for 2011 should be considered as an overview of the most probable emergence including natural and anthropogenic conditions and statistics from previous years.
Considering the characteristics of the emergency forecasting of natural origin, we can assume that in 2011 the number of natural character emergency will be observed as 110-130 per year. The most vulnerable in 2011 can be Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia, Mykolaiv, Odessa, Donetsk, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky Regions and Crimea.
Natural emergencies divided into types: hydrometeorological, geological, medicobiological, fire in natural ecosystems. Prediction of each of these species has its own peculiarities.
Tendencies in Emergencies of the hydrometeorological character.
In Ukraine meteorological factors become the reason of the emergency of the state and regional levels with significant material losses (65-80% of total losses). Over the past 14 years, annually is fixed from 25 (in 2006) to 87 (1997) hydrometeorological emergencies, while since 2000 marked the their decreasing compared with 1997-1999 years. In 2010, there were 38 hydrometeorological emergencies.
The most common natural disasters are due to heavy rain and strong wind.
The most dangerous are tornadoes, fleeting floods in mountainous regions.
The most devastating - floods and emergencies related to the complex action of heavy rain combined with wind squalls, hail.
According to the Ukrainian Meteorological Office for the period 1981-2010 years most dangerous meteorological phenomena’s appear in Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia, Lviv, Odessa, Kherson Regions and Crimea.
Approximately in 2011, is expected a moderately warm winter and spring with precipitation within the average long-term values and slightly below them, unstable temperature in summer, frequent strong wind (up to squalls or mikrotornado).
Tendency to sudden weather changes within short periods and a large number of abnormal weather conditions is remain. Therefore, in 2011, there is reason to orientate on the contrast of the weather and emergencies related with it.
АБЗАЦ НЕ ВИСТАЧАЄ
Trends in Emergencies geological character
Safety population and numerous economic projects in the areas of hazardous geological processes is a major social and environmental challenges. In recent years they have greatly intensified critically high levels of anthropogenic impact on the geological environment.
Every year there on 2 (2003) to 27 (1998) NS geological character. The largest numbers were from 1997-1999 and 2006-207 years., Which is largely due to the time factor facilitating natural processes. During the past 4 years, they appear at 7-15 NA.
In 2011, we should expect:
• activation of landslides in the Carpathian region of the South Crimea coast Odessa, Mykolayiv, Donetsk, Kherson right bank of the Dnieper River and its right tributary;
• increase the number of regional manifestations shear and karst processes within industrial conurbations and mountain industrial agglomerations, coastal marine areas;
• further enhance the process of karst development in areas of saline minerals (within Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv and Donetsk regions), sulfur deposits (within the Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil regions) and in the area of development flyusodolomitovoyi raw materials in Western Donbass;
• increased activity of landslides in areas sloping building (city of Dnipropetrovsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kyiv, Kupyansk, Poltava, Lubny etc.).
• relative stabilization processes in flooded regions.
Trends in Emergencies Medical and biological nature
Statistically years 1997-2010, including emergency natural character maximum and most casualties occur in situations of medical and biological nature. Every year they recorded from 58 (2001,
2009, 2010) to 112 (1998) of cases,
However, in the last four years - at 58 - 67 cases per year.
In 2011, the number of such emergencies ochikuvatymetesya at 60-80 cases per year while preserving trend as a result of poisoning prevalence NA NA people over because of infectious diseases of people (except June-August, when the observed maximum number of infectious diseases). The greatest risk of Emergencies Medical and biological information (statistics) in Donetsk, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhia, Kyiv, Dnipro Petrovsky, Odesa, Luhansk, Mykolaiv and Rivne.
Macroeconomic techno emergencies for 2011
According to statistics, every year in Ukraine appears:
• 60-90 fires and explosions that reach the criteria of the National Assembly;
• 25-50 emergency due to accidents or accidents in transport;
• 20-30 emergency due to accidents in life-support systems;
• 10-15 emergency due to the sudden destruction of buildings and structures;
• 5-15 emergency because of failures in electric power systems;
• 5-10 emergency due to the presence in the environment of harmful (polluting) substances exceeding the maximum permissible concentration etc.
Man fires. A significant number of fires and explosions (the death of three or more persons) registered annually in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the risk of which is and remains very high, especially in mines where emergency could reach the state level.
Kept the negative trend of the growth of emergency-related explosions and fire the gas in the residential sector, the destruction of buildings. In territorial terms with a high probability of fires and explosions in the residential sector and in manufacturing remains in Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhia, Kyiv, Lviv, Odessa, Kharkiv and Kherson regions.
In regions with a high risk of emergency transport include the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Lugansk, Lvov, Odessa, Poltava, Kharkiv and Cherkasy region.
Road transport. Each year, in Ukraine registered from 20 to 30 accidents in which more than 5 people killed, more than 10 injured. The causes of these accidents, mostly, are traffic violations by drivers of vehicles for transportation of passengers and cargo. Considerable danger to life and health of passengers are traveling in bus services small and medium class.
Rail. Every year in Ukraine recorded from 3 to 5 accidents on the railway with severe consequences. Especially dangerous are unregulated railway crossings as a result of a collision with a vehicle speed train mostly killed drivers and passengers of cars, buses, and the level of emergency situation could reach the regional or state level.
Air transport. Number of aircraft accidents is projected at 2.5 cases. There is a trend to increase the number of cases of ships flying small aircraft, due to the imperfection of the legal framework in this area, a low level of control over the technical condition of aircraft and, mainly, a violation of the rules for flying.
Sea and river transport. During the year may be registered at 2.4 ES water transport. The biggest risks of ES on freight, passenger and fishing vessels projected in Azov and Black Seas. Remaining risks of Emergencies of Ukraine flag vessels in international waters. The main types of disasters on sea and river transport are a vessel stranding, collision, overturning, spilling fuel and lubricants or other harmful (polluting) substances. The main causes of accidents are ship errors, damage and holes vessels.
Pipeline. Every year in Ukraine recorded from 1 to 3 accidents on main oil, gas and product. Reasons ES to pipeline transportation are unsatisfactory technical condition of machinery and equipment, unauthorized tie-in pipeline to steal transported product.
Housing. In recent years remained a significant number of emergency, which was recorded on the life-support systems (heat networks, water supply and sewerage, municipal pipelines). The high risk of accidents in Vinnitsa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kirovograd, Lviv, Odesa, Kherson and Chernihiv regions. Reasons for emergency life-support systems are mainly poor technical condition of equipment and distribution networks.
In 2011, there is a high likelihood of disasters, associated with the release (the threat of release) of hazardous chemicals at industrial sites, with the presence in the environment of harmful substances over Maximum allowable concentration (ГДК) in Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Luhansk, Odesa, Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions. At industrial sites emergencies of this kind arising from violations of technological processes and safety. Significant threat concerning environmental pollution (air, soil, surface and groundwater, etc.) constitute improper waste storage space, unsuitable chemicals, pesticides. Often the reasons for emergencies are unauthorized acts of third persons to initiate the storage of mercury and its deliberate spills. Electrical Power Systems. The most vulnerable to emergencies regional and national level in electric power systems in 2011 may be the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Mykolayiv, Odesa, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky and Chernivtsi.
In the cold season kept the risks of emergencies at thermal power stations, electric central heating stations, Hydroelectricity stations, Pumped-storage hydroelectricity stations at do not have backup equipment, heat networks with high wear, which may lead to disconnection of heating a large number of objects' facilities for industrial and residential purposes in large areas.At the level of previous years are stored risks of extreme events (incidents) at Ukrainian atomic power stations.
Emergency welfare under the current regulations are emergencies related to:
• armed attack, capture and hold objects of national importance or real threat of such actions;
encroachment on the life of a state or public figure;
• attack attempt on the life of the crew air or sea (river) vessels, theft (attempted theft), destruction (attempted destruction) of the vessel, taking hostages from among the members of the crew or passengers;
• installing an explosive device in a crowded place, institution, residential, transportation;
• disappearance or theft of weapons and hazardous substances from facilities storing, using and PROCESSING or during transport;
• accidents with people, mainly on the water and in the performance of duties as a result of violation of citizens own safety rules, ignoring safety requirements and rules of behavior on water.
By the above we inform you that forecasting and analytics constantly updated and posted on the official website of the Ministry of Emergencies of Ukraine.
The final part.
Thus, the human impact of natural hazards, technological, socio-political and military character of different levels - from local to state. Securing only under conditions of perfect knowledge of the causes, consequences and possible methods of protection against hazards.
The next lecture will be examined in detail technological and social hazards that affect people in the system "man - living environment."